Is the United States in Decline?

Is the United States in Decline?

The United States has been a powerful leading force for democracy and world order since the Great Depression, but there have been clear signs of decline. 

This article is not intended to be a biased bashing of the United States. I have no axe to grind. My family and I will be eternally grateful to the U.S. military forces, which assisted UK military forces in the liberation my family from a POW camp in Hong Kong where we were prisoners of the Japanese for four years during WWII. I have family and close friends in the U.S. I greatly admire and appreciate the United States and Americans for their significant contributions to the world in science, democracy, global cooperation, economic growth, and culture. This has prompted me to write this article, partly hoping that the decline does not continue, which could have disastrous effects on the US and the rest of the world. As much as I possibly could, wherever I describe American decline, I provide documented evidence or expert opinions.

The Decline

For decades, the United States has been in relative decline, facing the prospect of someday being overtaken by a rival power. Its main problem, however, is not the relative decline itself – it’s a natural phenomenon occurring as companies, sectors, regions and countries grow at uneven rates. Instead, its main problem is a failure to recognize this condition, whether out of pride, electoral calculation or simple lack of awareness.

In 1986, in his masterful The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Paul Kennedy explained that great powers rise and fall precisely because of their uneven growth: it is therefore the relationship between their varying growth rates that – “in the long run” – is decisive.

A Slow and Relative Decline

Since the mid-20th century, the United States has experienced continuous growth despite a few brief periods of recession. However, since the 1950s, its growth rate has lagged much of the rest of the world, leading to a relative economic decline. From 1960 to 2020, the real GDP of the U.S. increased 5.5 times, yet the global GDP grew 8.5 times during the same period. While the U.S. economy expanded significantly in absolute terms, its competitors outpaced it. For instance, China’s GDP grew 92 times over this timeframe. To illustrate, in 1960, the U.S. economy was equivalent to that of 22 Chinas, but by 2020, it was only 1.3 times larger.

In broader terms, while the global economic “cake” has grown substantially, the U.S. share has become relatively smaller. This diminishing share of global economic and productive power has implications beyond economics, constraining political manoeuvrability and contributing to the phenomenon of “overstretch.” Historically, such overstretch has been a factor in the decline of great empires, from the Roman Empire to the Russian Empire. As historian Paul Kennedy explained in 1986: “Decision-makers in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the sum total of the United States’ global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than the country’s power to defend them all simultaneously.”

In other words, the global interests and obligations that the United States could afford to defend with a GDP of nearly $3.46 trillion in 1960 could not all be defended simultaneously in 1986 with a GDP of $8.6 trillion, and even less so today despite a GDP approaching $30 trillion. 

Kennedy’s prescient analysis, unfortunately suffered from bad timing. Three years after his book was released, the pro-Russian regimes in Europe collapsed; four years later, the first of Japan’s “lost decades” began; five years later, the Gulf War (for which Washington assembled one of the largest military coalitions in history) broke out; and, at the end of that same year, 1991, the Russian Empire, in its Soviet version, imploded.

The Myth of the American “Hyperpower”

With the world’s second-largest economy (Japan) experiencing a sharp slowdown and the Soviet Union disappearing, the relative decline of American GDP enjoyed a trend reversal, albeit slight and short-lived. As a result, Kennedy’s book, when not mocked, was often forgotten.

Then began a period of US intoxication with being the “single superpower” in a “unipolar world,” the “hyperpower,” in which Americans thought they could reshape the world in their image despite no longer having the strength to do so and even as new competitors were beginning to flex their muscles. 

The History of the U.S.’s Great Leadership and Contributions

At the Bretton Woods resort in New Hampshire in 1944, the US convened 44 nations, large and small, to design a comprehensive economic regime for a prosperous post-war world. In the process, they formed the International Monetary Fund, or IMF (for financial stability); the World Bank (for postwar reconstruction); and, somewhat later, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (for free trade), the predecessor of the World Trade Organization.

A year after that, in San Francisco, the U.S. led 850 delegates from 50 allied nations in drafting the charter for a new organization, the United Nations, which aspired to a world order marked by inviolable sovereignty, avoidance of armed conflict, human rights, and shared prosperity. In addition to providing crisis management through peacekeeping and refugee relief, the U.N. also helped order a globalizing world by creating, over the next quarter century, seventeen specialized organizations responsible for everything from food security (the Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO) to public health (the World Health Organization, or WHO).

Starting with the $13 billion Marshall Plan to rebuild war-torn Europe, the U.S. supplemented the U.N.’s work by providing billions of dollars in bilateral aid to fund reconstruction and economic development in nations old and new. President John F. Kennedy globalized that effort by establishing the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which today has a budget of $27 billion and 4,000 employees. 

The US has carefully woven this new world order into the web of international law it had been building assiduously since its debut on the world stage at the Second Hague Conference on Peace in 1907. Under the U.N. charter of 1945, the General Assembly convened the International Court of Justice, which took its seat at the grandiose Peace Palace in The Hague, built by steel baron Andrew Carnegie years before, to promote the international rule of law.

Just months after its founding, the U.N. also formed its Human Rights Commission, chaired by former First Lady Eleanor Roosevelt, to draft the landmark Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted in Paris on December 10, 1948. In addition, instead of firing squads for the defeated Axis leaders, the U.S. led the Allies in convening tribunals at Nuremberg and Tokyo in 1945-1946 that tried their war crimes under international law. Three years later, the U.S. joined the global community in adopting the four modern Geneva Conventions that laid down the laws of war for future conflicts to protect both captives and civilians.

During the 70 years that the U.S. led many of these international institutions, half the world won national independence, economic prosperity spread, poverty declined, hunger receded, diseases were defeated, world war was indeed avoided, and human rights advanced. No other empire in history had presided over so much progress and prosperity for such a significant share of humanity.

American “Exceptionalism”

American exceptionalism is the belief that the United States is unique or superior among nations due to its historical, cultural, and political development. It is rooted in the idea that the U.S. has a special role to play as a beacon of democracy, freedom, and opportunity. This concept draws from:

1. Historical Foundations:
   • The U.S. was founded on ideals of liberty, individual rights, and self-governance, emerging as a democratic republic in an era dominated by monarchies.
   • The “manifest destiny” notion in the 19th century reflected the belief that the U.S. had a divine mission to expand its ideals across the continent.
2. Cultural and Political Identity:
   • A focus on democratic governance, capitalism, and individualism.
   • The perception of the U.S. as a “city upon a hill,” a biblical metaphor used by early Puritans to describe their vision of America as a model society.
3. Global Influence:
   • The rapid industrialization, military power, and global leadership established after World War II positioned the U.S. as a superpower.

The Impact of American Exceptionalism on the World

1. Promoting Democracy and Human Rights:
   • The U.S. has played a central role in spreading democratic values, such as during the post-World War II reconstruction of Japan and Germany.
   • American advocacy for human rights has shaped global norms, including support for the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
2. Economic Leadership:
   • The U.S. fostered international trade and economic cooperation, including establishing institutions like the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and World Trade Organization.
   • American corporations and technologies have driven globalization, transforming global economies and cultures.
3. Cultural Influence:
   • American entertainment, fashion, and consumer goods have become symbols of modernity and aspiration worldwide, creating a shared global culture.
   • English, bolstered by U.S. global influence, has become a lingua franca for business, science, and diplomacy.
4. Scientific and Technological Advancements:
   • U.S. contributions to science, medicine, and technology have advanced global progress, as seen in the space race, computing revolution, and medical breakthroughs.
5. Military and Strategic Interventions:
   • The U.S. has acted as a global police force, intervening in conflicts to uphold its values, from World War II to the Cold War, and more recently in the Middle East.

American Exceptionalism Rhetoric

Many American leaders and the media have repeatedly asserted U.S. exceptionalism with statements, often in hyperbole, such as:

• “America is the shining city on the hill.” (Ronald Reagan).
• “This is the greatest society in all of human history, the greatest country ever.” (Senator Marco Rubio).
• “I’ve always believed that this blessed land was set apart in a special way, that God had a divine plan for it.”  (Ronald Reagan).

• “We are the greatest nation that has ever existed.” Donald Trump.
• “America is the greatest nation on the face of the earth.” George W. Bush.
• “America remains the greatest force for peace and progress the world has ever known.” Hillary Clinton.
• “America is an idea, the most unique idea in history.” Joe Biden.
• “America is the greatest civilization in history.” Newt Gingrich.
• “The American experiment is the most important experiment in democracy the world has ever known.” Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. 

American Hubris: The Negative Consequences of a Belief in Exceptionalism

The belief in American exceptionalism has often led to hubris—an overconfidence or arrogance in the nation’s actions, leading to unintended consequences:

1. Overreach in Foreign Policy:
   • Military interventions, justified as spreading democracy, have sometimes destabilized regions, such as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
   • The assumption of moral superiority has led to strained relations with allies and resistance from other nations.
2. Cultural Imperialism:
   • The export of American values and consumer culture has sometimes been seen as eroding local traditions and cultures and promoting homogenization.
   • Critics argue that American exceptionalism can come across as dismissive of other nations’ cultures and systems.
3. Neglect of Domestic Issues:
   • A focus on projecting power abroad has sometimes overshadowed domestic challenges, such as income inequality, healthcare, and racial justice.
   • Critics argue that exceptionalism masks systemic problems by perpetuating an image of inherent superiority.
4. Resistance to Global Cooperation:
   • Exceptionalism has sometimes fostered unilateralism, in which the U.S. acts independently rather than collaboratively. This is evident in its withdrawal from agreements like the Paris Climate Accord (under the Trump administration) or its selective engagement with international law.
5. Moral Contradictions:
   • While promoting human rights abroad, the U.S. has faced criticism for historical and ongoing injustices, such as systemic racism and its treatment of Indigenous peoples.

American exceptionalism has positioned the U.S. as a transformative global force, championing democratic ideals, fostering innovation, and shaping global culture. However, its darker dimensions—characterized by overconfidence, cultural imposition, and unilateralism—have at times, undermined its credibility and fueled global tensions. Striking a balance between leading by example and respecting the legitimacy of other perspectives remains a persistent challenge for the nation.

Arguments for American exceptionalism often hinge on cross-country comparisons and achievements but overlook a critical nuance: differences in size, strength, or wealth reflect disparities in degree rather than kind. Historian Ian Tyrrell highlights this in American Exceptionalism: A New History of an Old Idea (2021), stating, “Whether measured by the size of navies, armaments, gross domestic product or any other aspect of quantitative national attainment,” such measures do not substantiate claims of exceptionalism.

Similarly, in The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism (2008), historian and retired Army colonel Andrew Bacevich warns of the dangers inherent in exceptionalist thinking. He critiques how the pursuit of freedom and prosperity can lead to imperialistic ambitions. 

Writing amid the prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bacevich observed a troubling connection between self-perception and foreign policy. “Sustaining our pursuit of life, liberty and happiness at home requires increasingly that Americans look beyond our borders,” he wrote, “whether the issue at hand is oil, credit or the availability of cheap consumer goods, we expect the world to accommodate the American way of life.” When regarded as a birthright, he says, “Exceptionalism risks fostering hubris over realism, perpetuating the belief that American actions inherently “serve providentially assigned purposes.”

In contemporary discourse, calls to restore American greatness and prioritize national interests evoke a new form of exceptionalism—one that is less aspirational and more self-serving. However, the “Trumpian alternative,” historian Abram Van Engen argues, does not reaffirm exceptionalism but undermines it. It suggests that nations, including the U.S., are locked in a competitive struggle to outdo one another in power and material success. This version of greatness, Van Engen contends, “has nothing to do with historic ideals or bedrock values rooted somewhere deep in the American past.” When exceptionalism is redefined through materialism and individualism—reducing the collective “we” to the “I” of a singular leader—America’s exemplary past risks becoming disposable.

This tension between ideals and reality is not new. Addressing the 1984 Democratic National Convention, New York Governor Mario Cuomo famously described America as a “tale of two cities.” While President Reagan envisioned a shining city on a hill, Cuomo noted that from Reagan’s vantage point—“the portico of the White House and the veranda of his ranch”—he could not see the other city, a place where “families without homes and children lacking education” resided. Cuomo’s speech underscored the complexities and contradictions that continue to shape the narrative of American exceptionalism.”

Learning from History

The rise and fall of great empires often follow a cyclical pattern, influenced by common factors such as military expansion, economic prosperity, cultural dominance, overextension, internal decay, and external pressures. Examining the histories of Ancient Rome, Spain, and Great Britain reveals striking similarities in this trajectory.

Ancient Rome

Rome began as a small city-state but expanded into one of the most powerful empires in history, lasting 500 years, and dominating the Mediterranean and much of Europe. Its rise was marked by military conquests, political innovation (e.g., the Republic and later the Empire), and cultural achievements. However, Rome’s fall came from overextension, economic challenges, political corruption, and external invasions by Germanic tribes.

• Military Overreach: The vast borders of the empire required enormous resources to defend, weakening internal stability.
• Economic Strains: Heavy taxation and reliance on slave labor led to economic stagnation.
• Moral Decay: Critics like Edward Gibbon in The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire argue that moral decline contributed to the empire’s fall: “The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest.”

Spain

Although Spain’s colonial empire lasted almost 400 years, Spain’s golden age in the 16th and 17th centuries was fueled by the wealth from its vast colonial empire in the Americas, including precious metals like gold and silver. This influx of wealth allowed Spain to dominate European politics and spread its influence globally. However, over-reliance on colonial wealth, military overextension (e.g., the costly Armada), and internal economic mismanagement precipitated its decline.

• Economic Dependence: The influx of silver caused inflation and discouraged domestic industries, leading to a fragile economy.
• Military Costs: Spain fought numerous wars, draining its resources and weakening its global influence.
• Cultural Stagnation: The Spanish Inquisition and rigid control over intellectual life stifled innovation and progress.

Great Britain

The British Empire, which also lasted 400 years, was at its peak in the 19th and early 20th centuries. It controlled vast territories across every continent, epitomized by the phrase “the sun never sets on the British Empire.” Its rise was driven by industrial innovation, naval dominance, and colonial expansion. However, the two World Wars, the decolonization movement, and economic challenges led to its decline.

• Economic Challenges: The costs of maintaining a global empire became unsustainable, especially after World War II.
• Decolonization: Movements for independence in colonies like India and Africa eroded British control.
• Shifting Global Power: The rise of the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II marked the transition to a new world order.

Winston Churchill captured both the glory and vulnerability of empires, stating in 1942:

“The empires of the future are the empires of the mind.”

The Pattern

The evidence suggests that empires often react to periods of their own decline by overextending their coping mechanisms. Military actions, infrastructure problems, and social welfare demands may then combine or clash, accumulating costs and backlash effects that the declining empire cannot manage. Policies aimed at strengthening the empire—and that once did—now undermine it. Contemporary social changes inside and outside the empire can reinforce, slow, or reverse the decline. However, when decline leads leaders to deny its existence, it can become self-accelerating. In empires’ early years, leaders and the led may repress those among them who stress or merely even mention decline. Social problems may likewise be denied, minimised, or, if admitted, blamed on convenient scapegoats—immigrants, foreign powers, or ethnic minorities—rather than linked to imperial decline.

The U.S. Empire and Its Historical Context

The U.S. empire, audaciously proclaimed by the Monroe Doctrine soon after two independence wars won against Britain, grew across the 19th and 20th centuries and peaked during the decades between 1945 and 2010. The rise of the U.S. empire overlapped with the decline of the British empire. The Soviet Union represented limited political and military challenges but never serious economic competition or threat. The Cold War was a lopsided contest whose outcome was programmed in from its beginning. All of the U.S. empire’s potential economic competitors or threats were devastated by World War II. The following years, Europe lost its colonies. The unique global position of the United States then, with its disproportional position in world trade and investment, was anomalous and likely unsustainable. An attitude of denial at the time that decline was all but certain morphed only too readily into the attitude of denial now that the decline is well underway.

Military Failures and Economic Shifts

The United States could not prevail militarily over all of Korea in its 1950–53 war there. The United States lost its subsequent wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The NATO alliance was insufficient to alter any of those outcomes. U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine and the massive United States and NATO sanctions against Russia have been failures to date and are likely to remain so. U.S. sanctions programmes against Cuba, Iran, and China have also failed. Meanwhile, the BRICS alliance counteracts U.S. policies to protect its empire, including its sanctions warfare, with increasing effectiveness.

In the realms of trade, investment, and finance, we can measure the decline of the U.S. empire differently. One index is the decline of the U.S. dollar as a central bank reserve holding. Another is its decline as a means of trade, loans, and investment. Finally, consider the U.S. dollar’s decline alongside that of dollar-denominated assets as internationally desired means of holding wealth. Across the Global South, countries, industries, or firms seeking trade, loans, or investments used to go to London, Washington, or Paris for decades; they now have other options. They can instead go to Beijing, New Delhi, or Moscow, where they often secure more attractive terms.

Empire, Profit, and Competition

Empire confers special advantages that translate into extraordinary profits for firms located in the country dominating the empire. The 19th century was remarkable for its endless confrontations and struggles among empires competing for territory to dominate and thus for their industries’ higher profits. Declines of any one empire could enhance opportunities for competing empires. If the latter seized those opportunities, the former’s decline could worsen. One set of competing empires delivered two world wars in the last century. Another set seems increasingly driven to deliver worse, possibly nuclear world wars in this century.

America’s decline is a product of its success. Although developing countries grew more slowly in the postwar period than their Western counterparts, they still grew. By the end of the century, they had started to convert that expanding economic clout into political and diplomatic power. Not only had they begun to acquire the capacity to negotiate better trade and financial agreements, but they also had a crucial bargaining chip in the form of two resources Western businesses now needed: growing markets and abundant supplies of labor.

Signs of American Decline

The following indicators of decline are intended to illustrate the breadth and depth of the decline over the last several decades and show that it was not a sudden event.

The United States spends more on health care than any other high-income country but still has the lowest life expectancy at birth and the highest rate of people with multiple chronic diseases, according to a 2024 report from The Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group. The report, released also says that compared with peer nations, the US has the highest rates of deaths from avoidable or treatable causes and the highest maternal and infant death rates. “We’re still the only nation that does not have universal health care or access for all of our citizens,” Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association said. Second, “we don’t do as much primary care prevention as the other nations, and we still have a public health system, which is fractured,” he said. “The third thing is, we under-invest compared to other industrialized nations in societal things. They spend their money on providing upfront support for their citizens. We spend our money on sick care.”

The Percentage of People Living Below Poverty Line: U.S. Ranks 35th best out of 157 countries. The number of children living in Poverty: OECD Rank = 34 out of 35.  The United States ranks in 34th place out of 35 OECD countries for children living in poverty. An estimated 43.1 million Americans live in poverty according to the official measure. Poverty is much worse in the U.S. compared to countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.

Income inequality: U.S. is fourth worst among Western nations according to the OECD The Gini coefficient (or index) is the most commonly used measure of income inequality. It ranges from 0 (a state of perfect equality) to 1 (where all wealth is held by one person, or a state of perfect inequality). Countries with the most serious problems of income inequality are Chile (Gini = .501), Mexico (.466), Turkey (.411), United States (.38), and Israel (.37).

The United States is ranked 14^th in the world when it comes to median wealth per adult according to Global Wealth Databook.  It is ranked 4^th according to average wealth, which illustrates the wide disparity of wealth between the richest and poorest in the US. In contrast Canada is ranked 10^th both in terms of average wealth and median wealth.

Happiness: U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 36 countries on Life Satisfaction according to the 2024 World Happiness Report. The low score helped push the United States out of the top 20 on the overall list for the first time since the report was first published in 2012.

The U.S. Ranked 33^rd out of 145 countries in terms of a ranking of the healthiest countries according to Bloomberg. To identify the healthiest countries in the world, Bloomberg Rankings created health scores and health-risk scores for countries with populations of at least one million. Five-year averages, when available, were used to mitigate some of the short-term year-over-year swings. In addition, the United States healthcare system has been declared a “mess” by the Institute of Medicine.

Health, Maternal Deaths: U.S. Ranks 60^th  out of 180 Countries. A recent report published in Lancet shows that the United States is now ranked 60^th out of 180 countries in maternal deaths during pregnancy and birth; in 1990, the U.S. ranked 20^th .

Prison Population Totals: U.S. ranked 1st out of 224 countries according to a report, World Prison Brief by the Institute for Crime & Justice Policy Research and the University of London . The United States of America locks up more people than any other country on the planet. Ironically, the so-called land of the free houses the highest prison population per capita in the OECD. According to a U.S. Department of Justice report published in 2019, over 6.9 million people were at that time in prison, on probation, or parole (released from prison with restrictions). That means roughly 1 in every 32 adult Americans are under some criminal justice system control. The majority of the 2.2 million people in the American correctional system, are black. The U.S. has more people incarcerated than the entire prison populations of England, Argentina, Canada, and six other countries combined. Since 1970, the detained population in the United States has increased by 700 percent. And as the Washington Post reported, more Americans are shipping off to prison than to four-year degree programs in some parts of the country. The United States is the only Western country that has capital punishment, and in 2019 executed 533 prisoners.

 Stability of Nations: U.S. Ranks 20^th out of 178 countries.  According to the Fund Finland for Peace, ranking of the stability of countries, which considers various factors including income inequality, corruption, and factionalism to measure the stability of a nation. the U.S. ranks 20th out of 178 countries. Western European countries, New Zealand, Australia and Canada were ranked much more favorably.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit 2020 report, the U.S. was described as a flawed democracy ranking 25^thamong countries. Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand and Canada took the top 5 rankings.

The US has fallen to a new low in a global ranking of political rights and civil liberties , according to a new report by Freedom House, a democracy watchdog group. The US scored 83 out of 100 possible points this year in Freedom House’s annual rankings of freedoms around the world, an 11-point drop from its ranking of 94 a decade ago. The US’s new ranking places it on par with countries like Panama, Romania and Croatia.

According to the  2020 Social Progress Index, the U.S. ranks 28th — having slipped from 19th in 2011.  The U.S, Hungary and Brazil are the only ones in which people are worse off than when the index began in 2011. And the declines in Brazil and Hungary were smaller than the U.S.

 The U.S. ranks 29^th out of 36 western OECD countries on the Better Life Index. The Better Life Index consists of 11 topics (housing, income, jobs, community, education, environment, civic engagement, health, life satisfaction, safety, work-life balance).  The United States ranks 29th out of 36 countries on work-life balance.

According to Reporters Without Borders, the United States ranks 47th out of 179 countries ranked for freedom of the press. The top ten countries for freedom of the press are:

1. Finland
2. Norway
3. Estonia
4. Netherlands
5. Austria
6. Iceland
7. Luxembourg
8. Switzerland
9. Cape Verde
10. Canada and Denmark (tied)

The U.S. ranked 132nd out of 163 countries in the annual Global Peace Index, an independent non-profit think tank based in Australia. The index scored 163 independent states and territories according to their levels of peacefulness. While the U.S. essentially held its rank relative to other countries’ movements, its level of peacefulness declined to its lowest level since 2011. 

The U.S.’s status among developed nations in educational standards are low and dropping. According to the U.S. Department of Education, 32 millionadults in the United States are illiterate, approximately 14 percent of the population. As for the adults who can read, 21 percent read at a 5th grade level, which is to say that they have probably never picked up a novel in their lifetime. 

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ranks the U.S. sixth (45.67%) for adult education level (ages 24-65), whereas Canada is ranked 1 (56.27). After leading the world for decades in 25–34-year category with university degrees, the U.S. is now in 12^th place. The U.S. ranks 12^th among developed countries in college graduation and 79^th in elementary school enrollment

Among the 35 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which sponsors the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), initiative, the U.S. ranked 30^th in math and 19^th in science. 

According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, 68% of public school children in the U.S. do not read proficiently by the time they finish third grade. And the U.S. News & World reported that barely 50% of students are ready for college-level reading when they graduate. 

Unfortunately, the “Nation’s Report Card” does not hint at such an optimistic future. The National Assessment of Educational Progress, a congressionally mandated Education Department program that has assessed students since 1969, finds that the only 29 percent of fourth graders and 20 percent of eighth graders are even proficient in math. Only 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively, are “advanced” at those levels. 

The U.S. has the highest obesity rates among all 27 OECD countries, with a 37% percent obesity rate in 2020, according to the Bloomberg Health Index. . The rate of obesity in the US has doubled in adults between 1990 and 2021 to more than 40 percent, and nearly tripled to 29 percent among girls and women aged 15 to 24.

U.S. water quality and infrastructure is poor. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that during the Flint water crisis in 2015, nearly 21 million Americans—about 6%—were getting water from systems that violated health standards. And looking back over time, the number of violations generally increased from 1982 to 2015—spiking in the years following the addition of a new regulation, the team reports in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. In 2013, America received a “D” in the drinking-water category of the American Society for Civil Engineers’ Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. The report found that most of the nation’s drinking-water infrastructure is “nearing the end of its useful life.” Replacing the nation’s pipes would cost more than $1 trillion. The country’s wastewater infrastructure also got a “D” grade. According to an article on patch.com, an analysis of federal data by the Environmental Working Group has shown that the water supply for 200 million Americans may contain toxic levels of chromium-6, aka hexavalent chromium, which may cause cancer. 

The U.S. exercises little oversight over environmental damage by energy companies.  According to Toxic Waters: How Offshore Fracking Pollutes the Gulf of Mexico, a new report (pdf) published by the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), fossil fuel extraction methods of fracking and acidizing have become increasingly common in offshore oil and gas production over the past decade, the U.S. government continues to allow oil and gas companies to discharge millions of gallons of hazardous waste into the Gulf of Mexico “without limit.” With no limits on toxic discharge, oil companies have dumped at least 66.3 million gallons of fracking fluids, containing many substances known to be toxic to both people and wildlife, into the Gulf from 2010 through 2020.

Key findings of the report include:

• The federal government has approved fracking more than 3,000 times and acidizing at least 700 times since 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico alone, with no meaningful oversight or environmental review;
• Chemicals used in offshore fracking and acidizing pose significant health risks to people and wildlife, including reproductive harm, neurotoxicity, cancer, and even death;
• Extreme oil and gas extraction worsens the climate crisis;
• The fossil fuel industry hurts tourism and fishing, which create about 2.85 million jobs—more than 10 times the jobs created by the fossil fuel industry in the Gulf of Mexico— and provide more in tax revenue; and
• State and federal agencies have failed to monitor and regulate fracking and acidizing adequately.

The U.S. ranks #1 of all Western countries in terms of violent crime. Hate crimes have seen an increase in cities across the USA. 

 US life expectancy is slipping further and further behind other high-income countries. According to the most recent comparative data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, US life expectancy in 2017 (at 78.6 years) ranked 27th out of 35 OECD countries, which averaged 82.3 years. According to new research published in JAMA Internal Medicine the U.S. has declined significantly over the past few years, falling from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77 in 2020 and 76.1 in 2022 — undoing over two decades of progress. This puts the country far behind its wealthy peers: Countries such as Japan, Korea, Portugal, the U.K., and Italy all enjoy a life expectancy of 80 years or more. In contrast, Canada’s is 83.11 years. The picture is especially concerning for men in the US whose life expectancy is now 73.2 years, compared with women’s 79.1. This 5.9 year gap is the widest between the two genders since 1996.

The U.S. lags behind other developed countries in retirement well-being. The Global Retirement Index, developed by Natixis Investment Managers and CoreData research, serves to provide insight into what influences a country’s ascent or decline in overall well-being in retirement. The study is a multifaceted index that focuses on four thematic subindices: Material Well-Being, health, quality of Life, and Finances. The top 16 countries are from Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The U.S. was rated as #17.

Among wealthy democracies, the U.S. ranks 27^th overall by the Environmental Performance Index in 2018. The Index, a collaborative effort by Yale and Columbia researchers and the World Economic Forum. Using 10 categories, it ranked the United States 27th. On air it ranks 10th and on water, 29th. Among wealthy democracies, the United States ranks toward the bottom, according to Zachary Wendling, principal investigator at the Environmental Performance Index.

The OECD’s Better Life Index rankings put the U.S. at 8^th in the world. And, the moderate publication U.S. News and World Report ranking of “best countries” places the US 23^rd.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) reports that the United States is the only advanced economy that does not legally guarantee paid vacation. According to the CEPR, European countries lead the world in guaranteeing paid leave for their workers. Among OECD countries, 16 of the 18 most generous governments regarding paid vacation are European.

According to the New York Times, “Studies show that the United States has among the highest rates of drug use in the world.” But even as restricting supply has failed to curb abuse, aggressive policing has led to thousands of young drug users filling American prisons, where they learn how to become real criminals. The Times article goes on to say, “In fact, nearly half of the 186,000 people serving time in federal prisons in the United States are incarcerated on drug-related charges. Since the War on Drugs began more than 40 years ago, the U.S. government has spent more than $1 trillion on interdiction policies. Spending on the War on Drugs continues to cost U.S. taxpayers more than $51 billion annually. The unintended consequences of the War on Drugs do not affect all groups equally. In the United States, it is well documented that these policies disproportionately impact minority communities, particularly blacks and Hispanics.” 

According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has more mass shootings than any other country. In one study by Adam Lankford, it has been estimated that 31% of public mass shootings occur in the U.S., although it has only 5% of the world’s population. With respect to homicide rates, Canada has a 1.68 per 100,000 ratio, the UK, 1.20 per 100,000 and the US 49.26 per 100,000.

 According to a study by the Grant Thornton International Business. out of the 45 countries examined, the United States ranks in the bottom 10 for the percentage of women in senior management positions, occupying just 22 per cent of senior roles. Since the end of World War II, 64 countries have had a female head of state, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ Women’s Power Index, which ranks countries on their progress toward gender parity in political participation.  In its 244-year history, the U.S. has never elected a woman as President. In contrast, there are 29 countries where women serve as heads of state.

America’s infrastructure is crumbling.  The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave the US a D grade for its roads and a “D,” and the cost for the cost of bringing all systems up to adequacy, at a cost estimated at $2.2 trillion. What’s more, the US Department of Transportation estimates it could cost as much as $1 trillion just to bring the current Interstate and highways system in the US up to date. Out of 138 economies worldwide, the US ranks 23^rd  in infrastructure competitiveness, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index. The U.S. has 614,387 bridges, almost 4 in 10 of which are 50 years or older. Nine per cent of these bridges were structurally deficient in 2016, and there were 188 million trips across a structurally deficient bridge each day. One out of every 5 miles of highway pavement is in poor condition.

The American healthcare system rated as poor. A report in JAMA (American Medical Association) published in March comparing U.S. statistics with those of the highest income countries (United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Denmark) indicates that the American healthcare system fares quite poorly. The U.S. spends far more per capita on healthcare when compared to other countries, but has less in healthcare outcomes to show for it.

The U.S. is responsible for over 80% of all the gun deaths in the 23 richest countries combined. The U.S. is ranked 4th out of 34 developed nations for the highest incidence rate of homicides committed with a firearm, according to Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) data. According to the CDC gun deaths in the US have reached the highest level in nearly 40 years. There are more than 393 million guns in circulation in the United States — approximately 120.5 guns for every 100 people. An estimated 45 million Americans own handguns. 87% of the children killed in the 23 wealthiest nations were American. 80% of the gun deaths in the 23 wealthiest nations were American. 

The US has not ratified any international human rights treaties since December 2002. It has not ratified the following international treaties or conventions: 

• Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women.
• Land Mine Ban Treaty.
• Convention on Cluster Munitions.
• Convention of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.
• Civil Law Convention on Corruption.
• Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
• United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
• United Nations Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of Their Families.
• Convention on the Rights of the Child.
• Occupational Safety and Health Convention.
• Convention on the Non-Applicability of Statutory Limitations to War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity.
• Arms Trade Treaty.
• Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights—part of the International Bill of Human Rights.
• Optional Protocol of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
• Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment.
• International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.
• International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.

The United States is the world’s top exporter of arms. The United States was the largest exporter of major arms from 2015-2019, delivering 76 percent more arms than runner-up Russia, according to a new study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank. The U.S. contributed about 35 percent of all the world’s arms exports during that five-year time period.

The U.S.’s Drone Warfare have been used for targeted assassinations as a form of war (without Congressional authorization) and resulted in large numbers of civilian casualties and the violation of other countries’ territorial boundaries. According to international law and the Geneva conventions, all parties to a conflict must distinguish between combatants and civilians – the latter being “protected persons”. At least two respected law professors, Fionnuala Ní Aoláin (at University of Minnesota Law School) and Philip Alston (Professor of Law at New York University Law School, and former UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial executions) argued “one can reasonably take the position that the US government and its targeted killing programs breach international and human rights law standards.” The use of drones was supposed to both respect the law and protect the vulnerable. Yet in Iraq the methods that killed the most civilians per event were drone strikes. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, a non-profit news organisation, estimates that since 2015, the US has conducted more than 14,000 drone strikes in Afghanistan alone.

Corruption in the U.S. has reached serious heights. The World Economic Forum’s “The Global Competitiveness Report on Corruption” shows corruption to be a rather pervasive problem in the U.S., compared to most other OECD countries (the higher the number the more corrupt):

• On “Diversion of Public Funds [due to corruption],” the U.S. ranks #34.
• On “Irregular Payments and Bribes” (which is perhaps an even better measure of lack of corruption) the U.S. is #42.
• On “Public Trust in Politicians,” the U.S. is #54.
• On “Judicial Independence,” the U.S. is #38.
• On “Favoritism in Decisions of Government Officials” (otherwise known as governmental “cronyism”), the U.S. is #59.
• On “Organized Crime,” the U.S. is #87.
• On “Ethical Behavior of Firms,” the U.S. is #29.
• On “Transparency of Governmental Policymaking,” the U.S. is #56.
• On “Property Rights” protection (the basic law-and-order measure), the U.S. is #42.

The U.S. ranked 17th out of 175 countries with respect to corruption in the country according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index .The United States was ranked #17 in 2014 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Denmark was #1 and viewed as the least corrupt country; Somalia and North Korea (rank tied at #174) were perceived as the most corrupt countries in the world. Corruption in the United States is a serious issue compared to other Western countries, according to a new global report released by Transparency International. In the annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), the United States fell to a low of 67 out of a maximum possible score of 100, down from a high of 76 in 2015. 

U.S. ranked low on Most Reputable Countries listing. According to the Forbes 2019 Most Reputable Countries ranking compiled by The Reputation Institute, the top countries in order as Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, New Zealand and Canada. The U.S. was listed as 36th.

The U.S. scored low on the 2018 Best Countries rankings. According to global marketing communications company Y&R’s brand strategy firm, BAV Group, and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Switzerland ranked No. 1, and Canada ranked No. 2. The U.S. was ranked No. 8.

Anti-science, anti-expert and anti-intellectualism is growing in the U.S. The recent and ongoing virus pandemic has exposed a serious flaw in American democracy—the war against expertise and virulent anti-intellectualism. In politicians’ press conferences, major news outlets’ shows, and articles both in mainstream media and social media, the conclusions and perspectives of scientific experts on issues related to COVID-10 or climate change are not only challenged by commentators that have no scientific expertise nor can they provide any evidence for their claims. Worse, often an argumentative equivalency is presented to viewers and readers to show that opinions (often uninformed) are equal to and as important as expert views backed by scientific evidence.

Tom Nichols a professor at the U.S. Naval War College and author of The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters, argues, “In the far less grand homes of ordinary American families, knowledge of every kind is also under attack. Parents argue with their child’s doctor over the safety of vaccines. Famous athletes speculate that the world might be flat. College administrators ponder dropping algebra from the curriculum because students keep failing it. This is all immensely dangerous, not only to the well-being of individual citizens but to the survival of the United States as a republic.” Nicols says, “A significant number of laypeople now believe, for no reason but self-affirmation, that they know better than experts in almost every field. They have come to this conclusion after being indulged in classrooms from kindergarten through college, continually assured by infotainment personalities in increasingly segmented media that popular views, no matter how nutty, are virtuous and right, and mesmerized by an internet that tells them exactly what they want to hear, no matter how ridiculous the question.”

A partisan divide persists. More Democrats (43%) than Republicans (27%) have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists—a difference of 16 percentage points. The gap between the two parties on this issue (including independents who identify with each party) was 11 percentage points in 2016 and has increased since then.

As Naomi Oreskes and Erik M Conway demonstrated in their 2010 book Merchants of Doubt, right-wing think tanks, the fossil fuel industry, and other corporate interests that are intent on discrediting science have employed a strategy first used by the tobacco industry to try to confuse the public about the dangers of smoking. “Doubt is our product,” read an infamous memo written by a tobacco industry executive in 1969, “since it is the best means of competing with the ‘body of fact’ that exists in the minds of the general public.” So now we have a culture in the U.S. that readily embraces “fake news” and “alternative facts,” echoes of the book by George Orwell, 1984.

The U.S.’s military presence worldwide reflects the profile of a militaristic country.  The U.S. currently has somewhere between 800 and 1,000 military bases in over 50 countries and still regards itself as the world’s police force. By 1970, the United States had more than one million soldiers in 30 countries; was a member of four regional defence alliances and an active participant in a fifth; had mutual defence treaties with 42 nations; and was furnishing military aid to nearly 100 nations. David Vine’s book Base Nation found 800 U.S. military bases located outside of the U.S., including 174 bases in Germany, 113 in Japan, and 83 in South Korea. The total cost is an estimated $100 billion a year. Vine shows how the overseas bases raise geopolitical tensions and provoke widespread antipathy toward the United States. They undermine American democratic ideals, pushing the United States into partnerships with dictators and perpetuating a system of second-class citizenship in territories such as Guam.  According to The Huffington Post, “The 45 nations and territories with little or no democratic rule represent more than half of the roughly 80 countries now hosting U.S. bases .… Research by political scientist Kent Calder confirms what’s come to be known as the “dictatorship hypothesis”: The United States tends to support dictators [and other undemocratic regimes] in nations where it enjoys basing facilities.”

 The U.S. has continuously been at war. America has been at war 93% of the time – 222 out of 239 Years – since 1776 . Congress is the only part of the government that has the authority to declare war against another country. Yet, Congress has formally declared war only 11 times in U.S. history. The United States Congress has not formally declared war since World War II. All of the wars in the Middle East have been authorized using other means. Here’s a partial list of the countries in which the US has had military intervention in some form since WWII: Vietnam, Korea, Sudan, Liberia, Ethiopia, Chad, Afghanistan, Iraq, Uganda, Cuba, Nicaragua, Chile, Lebanon, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Angola, Poland, Grenada, Libya, Yemen, Congo, Zaire, Bolivia, Panama, Somalia, Columbia, Syria, Egypt, Thailand, Laos, Cyprus, Iran, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Bosnia, Macedonia, Albania. Despite its constitutional role to do so, Congress exercises little oversight over US military and CIA missions, and much of this occurs in secret.

Economic Inequality is the highest in the U.S. among all OECD countries as of 2020 and the highest of all the G7 nations, and increasing. Here is some data to illustrate:

• According to a Pew Center study, income growth in recent decades has favored upper-income households. At the same time, the middle class, which once comprised the clear majority of Americans, is shrinking. Thus, a greater share of the nation’s aggregate income is now going to upper-income households, and the share going to middle—and lower-income households is falling. The middle class has decreased from 61% in 1971 to 51% in 2019.
• The top 1% earns forty times more than the bottom 90%.  The top 0.1% of income earners own as much wealth as the bottom 90% combined.
• Since 1990, CEO compensation has increased by 300%. For example, according to the Wall Street Journal, CEO compensation in the billions is no longer unusual, with many receiving at least US$500 million in total pay. Yet this pales in comparison with the pay that shareholders approved Elon Musk received CEO of Tesla, estimated at $56 billion.
• Some hedge fund managers made $4 billion annually, enough to pay the salaries of every public school teacher in New York City.

In their book, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger, Professors Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett present data taken from multiple credible sources that show the gap between the poor and rich the greatest in the U.S. among all developed nations; child well-being is the worst in the U.S. among all developed nations; and levels of trust among people in the U.S. is among the worst of all developed nations.

In a report “Income and Wealth Inequality in America, 1949-2016,” for the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, authors Moritz Kuhn Moritz Schularick and Ulrike I. Steins of the University of Bonn concluded “The historical data also reveal that no progress has been made in reducing income and wealth inequalities between black and white households over the past 70 years, and that close to half of all American households have less wealth today in real terms than the median household had in 1970.”

The myth of the self-made man fuels income inequality in the U.S. One of the persistent beliefs, which is more of a myth, is the belief in the “self-made man (or women)”—a belief that anyone, regardless of family background, ethnic origins, race or economic and social level, can become rich and famous. And, of course, a few have, frequently featured by the media as typical examples. Yet, some of the wealthiest entrepreneurs in North America say there is no such thing as the “self-made man (or woman).” With more millionaires making, rather than inheriting, their wealth, there is a false belief that they made it on their own without help, says a report published by the Boston-based non-profit United For a Fair Economy. The report says the myth of “self-made wealth is potentially destructive to the very infrastructure that enables wealth creation.”

Top U.S. income earners avoid paying taxes. The 55 U.S. corporations that paid no federal corporate income tax in 2019-2021 have spent a combined $450 million on political campaign contributions and lobbying—including for lower taxes—according to a report published by the progressive advocacy group Public Citizen. The report, entitled “The Price of Zero”, cites figures from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy showing that at least 55 U.S. corporations avoided paying any corporate income tax in 2020 on a combined pretax income of $40.5 billion. “Had these companies paid a tax rate of 21%—the current federal rate—they would have owed the federal government $8.5 billion,” the report notes, “Not only did these companies not pay taxes, but nearly all also got money back from the government, receiving $3.5 billion in tax rebates, bringing the total 2020 tax giveaways for these 55 companies to $12 billion.” Instead of paying taxes, the companies invested a combined $408 million in lobbying and $42 million in campaign contributions over the past three election cycles, according to data obtained from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Led by two IRS researchers as well as Daniel Reck of the London School of Economics and Emmanuel Saez of the University of California, Berkeley, the report finds that 6 percentage points of the wealthiest households’ unreported income “correspond to undetected sophisticated evasion” such as offshoring, pass-through businesses, and other avoidance tactics. “From a policy perspective, our results highlight substantial evasion at the top, which requires administrative resources to detect and deter,” the authors write. “We estimate that the top 1% owes 36% of federal income taxes unpaid and that collecting all unpaid federal income tax from this group would increase federal revenues by about $175 billion annually.” “There has been much discussion in the United States about the fact that the audit rate at the top of the income distribution has declined,” the paper continues. “Our results suggest that such low audit rates are not optimal.”

A new report from the non-profit think tank Rand finds that wages for all Americans increased at around the same pace as the economy from 1947 to 1974. But since 1975, the bottom 90% of earners saw wages increase at a fraction of the pace of the richest Americans — even as the economy continued to grow. The average wage of 44% of workers before the pandemic was just $18,000, according to the Brookings Institute  and a typical worker can no longer afford to care for a family of four on a year’s salary. While a child born in 1945 had a 90% chance of making more than their parents, someone born in 1985 only has a 50% chance of faring better than them. 

The U.S. ranks 27^th in the World Economic Forum’s new Global Social Mobility Index. 17 of the top 20 most socially mobile societies are in Europe, led by Denmark and other Scandinavian countries.

The largest 500 companies in the U.S. shelter more than $2.1 trillion in offshore tax havens. A 2015 study conducted by the Citizens for Tax Justice and the U.S. Public Interest Research Group Education Fund found that the largest 500 companies in the U.S. keep more than $2.1 trillion in tax havens. And according to the study, large multinational corporations often pay licensing fees and royalties to their offshore subsidiaries for logos and patents under the guise of a business expense, in order to legally transfer the money from the United States while using the payments as tax deductions.

Uncontrollable U.S. Debt: The U.S. Debt Clock displays the inevitability of American decline — a “ticking time bomb” of data and financial evidence — especially the following three.

The U.S. government’s total unfunded liabilities — the combined amount of payments promised without funds to recipients of Social Security, Medicare, federal employee pensions, veterans’ benefits and federal debt held by the public — stand at $212 trillion, and are rapidly increasing. For context, that number was just $122 trillion as recently as 2019 and is projected by the Debt Clock to reach $288.9 trillion by 2028. 

That is an unimaginable amount of money—more than a quarter of a quadrillion dollars. When or if the government is forced to reduce payments, pensions, or services to keep things together or default on its debt, the consequences will be brutal.

The second ticking bomb is the U.S. debt, which has increased more than sixfold to $34 trillion from $5.6 trillion in 2000. Of that $34 trillion, $731 billion has been accumulated through interest payments, the fourth-highest annual U.S. budget item. (If you are keeping score, the third-highest is $851 billion for Defence, followed by Social Security at $1.39 trillion and Medicare-Medicaid at $1.72 trillion.)

Like an irresponsible credit card user, the federal government is perpetually borrowing more money to make the interest payments as they come due. And the interest payments on the newly refinanced debt will be much higher due to recent and significant rate hikes.

Finally, the $34 trillion national debt, as a percentage of the nation’s economy, has increased from 56 percent in 2000 and 36 percent in 1980. 

Americans’ commitment to the Democratic system is weak.

• Research conducted by Bright Line Watch, the group that organised the Yale conference on democracy, shows that Americans are not as committed to these norms as you might expect. Yascha Mounk, at Harvard University, summed it up: “If current trends continue for another 20 or 30 years, democracy will be toast.” 
• Another startling finding reported in the New York Times, is that many Americans are open to “alternatives” to democracy. In 1995, writes Amanda Taub in the Times article, for example, “one in 16 Americans supported Army rule; in 2014, that number increased to one in six. According to another survey cited at the conference, 18 percent of Americans think a military-led government is a ‘fairly good’ idea.”
• A study by the Center for Information and Research on Civil Learning & Engagement at Tufts University has found that most states do not emphasize civic education, which includes learning about citizenship, government, law, current events and related topics.
• The political scientists Christopher Federico, Stanley Feldman, and Christopher Weber found that in 1992, 62 percent of white voters who ranked highest on the authoritarian scale supported George H.W. Bush. In 2016, 86 percent of the most authoritarian white voters backed Trump, an increase of 24 percentage points.
• Christopher Federico, writing with Christopher Johnston of Duke and Howard G. Lavine of the University of Minnesota, published Open versus Closed: Personality, Identity, and the Politics of Redistribution, exploring the concept of authoritarian voting. They argue: “Over the last few decades, party allegiances have become increasingly tied to a core personality dimension we call ‘openness.’ Citizens high in openness value independence, self-direction, and novelty, while those low in openness value social cohesion, certainty, and security. Individual differences in openness seem to underpin many social and cultural disputes, including debates over the value of racial, ethnic, and cultural diversity, law and order, and traditional values and social norms.
• According to Freedom in the World 2021, the annual country-by-country assessment of political rights and civil liberties released by Freedom House, a non-profit organization providing research and policy resources for democracy, the United States experienced further democratic decline during the final year of the Trump presidency. The US score in Freedom in the World has dropped by 11 points over the past decade and fell by three points in 2020 alone. The changes have moved the country out of a cohort that included other leading democracies, such as France and Germany, and brought it into the company of states with weaker democratic institutions, such as Romania and Panama.
• A study by Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page titled “Testing Theories of American Politics.“the academic journal Perspectives on Politics, finds that the U.S. is no longer a democracy, but instead an oligarchy: “Despite the seemingly strong empirical support in previous studies for theories of majoritarian democracy, our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts.” They go on to say, “America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened” by the findings in this, the first-ever comprehensive scientific study of the subject, which shows that there is instead “the nearly total failure of ‘median voter’ and other Majoritarian Electoral Democracy theories [of America]. When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy.”

• The U.S. ranking as a democracy is declining. The Democracy Index 2016, released in January 2017, lists the United States as a flawed democracy. The basis for the decline was not the 2016 presidential election. Instead, the report argues that Donald Trump benefited from a lack of popular trust in American government.

• Big money lobbies exert undue influence on Congress. In her book Corruption in America, the legal scholar Zephyr Teachout notes that “the institutions of the United States were explicitly designed to counter the myriad ways in which people might seek to sway political decisions for their own personal gain. Many forms of lobbying were banned throughout the 19th century. In Georgia, the state constitution at one time read that lobbying is declared to be a crime. In California, it was a felony. Over the course of the 20th century, lobbying gradually became acceptable. But even once the activity became normalized, businesses remained reluctant to exert their influence.”

• The book Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right,by journalist Jane Mayer, also clearly describes how the U.S. political system is dominated by wealthy corporations’ and individuals’ money, which implies that even the most modest attempts to tackle climate change, gun control, or other important social and economic issues, fail. The vast majority in the U.S. — 84% — believe money has too much influence in political campaigns, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll . The feeling cuts across party lines, with 80% of Republicans, 90% of Democrats and 84% of independents believing campaign cash plays too big a role.

• The American Electoral System Electing the President Favors Minority Rule. The U.S. Constitution was originally designed to have a decentralized small-state bias, but the effects have become more pronounced as the population discrepancy between the smallest states and the largest states has grown. “Given contemporary demography, a little bit less than 50 percent of the country lives in 40 of the 50 states,” Sanford Levinson, a constitutional law scholar at the University of Texas,” says, “roughly half the country gets 80 percent of the votes in the Senate, and the other half of the country gets 20 percent.” And the U.S. Senate has slipped further out of alignment with the American population over time, where for example a state like Wyoming with a population of 578,000 has the same number of Senators as the state of California, with a population of 39,000,000.

• The House of Representatives retains a rural bias. Republican voters are more efficiently distributed across the country than Democrats, who are concentrated in cities. That means that even when Democrats win 50 percent of voters nationwide, they invariably hold fewer than 50 percent of House seats, regardless of partisan gerrymandering.

• University of Kentucky history department chair Ronald Formisamo’s latest book is titled: American Oligarchy: The Permanence of the Political Class. By Formisamo’s detailed account, U.S. politics and policy are under the control of a “permanent political class” – a ‘networked layer of high-income people’– including Congressional representatives (half of whom are millionaires), elected officials, campaign funders, lobbyists, consultants, appointed bureaucrats, pollsters, television celebrity journalists, university presidents, and executives at well-funded non-profit institutions.” This “permanent political class,” Formisamo warns, is taking the nation “beyond [mere] plutocracy” to “the hegemony of an aristocracy of inherited wealth.”  It “drives economic and political inequality not only with the policies it has constructed over the past four decades, such as federal and state tax systems rigged to favor corporations and the wealthy; it also increases inequality by its self-dealing, acquisitive behavior as it enables, emulates, and enmeshes itself with the wealthiest “One Percent “and engages in the direct creation of inequality by channeling the flow of income and wealth to elites [while]… its self-aggrandizement creates a culture of corruption that infects the entire society and that induces many to abuse positions of power to emulate or rise into the One Percent …[and as it] contributes to continuing high levels of poverty and disadvantage for millions that exceed almost all advanced nations.”

• According a major bipartisan poll that commissioned by the George W. Bush Institute, the University of Pennsylvania’s Biden Center and Freedom House, which tracks the vitality of democracies around the world the United States’ democracy has weakened. The three groups have partnered to create the Democracy Project, with the goal of monitoring the health of the American system, 50% of Americans think the United States is in “real danger of becoming a non-democratic, authoritarian country.” A majority, 55 percent, see democracy as “weak” – and 68 percent believe it is “getting weaker.” Eighty per cent of Americans say they are either “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the condition of democracy. 

What Does the Future Hold for the American Empire?

Currently, the redistribution of power among a select group of nation-states is significantly disrupting the global order. Established 20th-century powers like the United States and the European Union are losing prominence and influence to rapidly growing nations such as China and India. Alliances forged after World War II are being replaced by new regional coalitions across Latin America, Asia, and Africa. While these shifts reflect regional political, economic, and demographic changes, they also heighten the volatility risk, including potential conflicts. 

Parag Khanna  in the New York Times observes that “large, continental-sized nation states will continue seeking to control supply chains in energy and technology while smaller states will need to band together or suffer the consequences of irrelevance.”

This de-concentration of power away from nation-states has given rise to parallel layers of governance. Nation-states are increasingly establishing legal and physical enclaves to outsource core functions to private entities. Currently, there are over 4,000 registered special economic zones worldwide, encompassing free trade and export processing zones, free ports, and innovation parks. Zones in nations like China, Malaysia, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates are relatively successful, while those in Africa and South Asia have often struggled. These para-states intentionally merge public and private interests, testing the limits of state sovereignty.

Additionally, decentralized networks of non-state actors and coalitions, many empowered by information and communication technologies, place pressure on nation-states and para-states. Large multinational corporations, networks of non-governmental organizations, unions, faith-based groups, and other organizations are already shaping national policy. Successfully collaborating with these digitally empowered networks, rather than opposing them, will be a critical challenge for nation-states. The proliferation of new technologies offers innovative opportunities for participatory democracy but also poses significant risks. This dual nature of the quantified society presents extraordinary benefits and threats, from the erosion of low-skill jobs to new forms of warfare, terrorism, and crime.

Urbanization further redefines power dynamics, with cities increasingly becoming significant centers of influence. The number of large and medium-sized cities has grown tenfold since the 1950s. Today, there are 29 megacities with populations exceeding 10 million, 163 cities with over 3 million residents, and at least 538 cities with populations of at least 1 million. Cities are no longer merely followers of international norms; they are shaping them. A new wave of mayors and hundreds of city coalitions is embedding urban priorities into global relations. Consequently, cities now compete with one another and nation-states over resources like water, food, and energy.

Saskia Sassen’s work illustrates how the increasing role of intermediation has driven the rise of global cities. In The Global City, Sassen explains that the deregulation and privatisation of national economies during the 1980s and 1990s fueled the globalisation of cities. This, in turn, created high demand for specialised talent, contributing to hyper-gentrification, as evident in cities like London, New York, Shanghai, and Hong Kong. These developments have fundamentally reshaped urban living, raising sustainability concerns.

The challenges facing nation-states in the next decade and beyond are numerous and severe. Having endured for 368 years, nation-states have demonstrated political, social, and bureaucratic resilience. However, the magnitude of today’s global challenges and the ineffectiveness of national and multilateral institutions raises concerns that nation-states may become outdated and detrimental to humanity’s survival.

The risk of powerful nation-states succumbing to nativist and protectionist forces is more apparent than ever. At the same time, cities and civil society networks represent influential nodes of political and economic power. The pressing question remains whether these entities can effectively channel collective action to confront tomorrow’s threats.

Two recent books offer a glimpse into what the future may look like for the U.S.

— All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st Century and the Future of American Power, by Thomas J. Wright, a fellow at the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, and In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power, by Alfred McCoy, a legendary investigative journalist and a professor of history at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

Wright sees the U.S. as facing a threat to its world dominance system from a combination of newly emerging powers such as China and recent American mistakes, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. McCoy sees the decline of the U.S. empire as analogous to the events that led to the decline of the British and French empires before it. The first step, he says, is the loss of support from local elites in territories under imperial influence. This process McCoy says is underway for the U.S. in many critical world regions. In recent years, America has seen its ties strained with military partners such as Turkey, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, while major U.S. allies like Germany and South Korea have increasingly come to question America’s capacity to continue leading the imperial system that it created.

 In an article in The Nation,  McCoy argues that “the demise of the United States as a global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines,” suggesting it will be complete by 2027. The U.S. National Intelligence Council admitted in 2008 that America’s global power was declining. A Global Trends 2025 report said, “the transfer of global wealth and economic power is underway from West to East,” without precedent. Citing an opinion poll, McCoy reports that as early as August 2010, 65% of Americans believed the country was “in a state of decline.”

McCoy argues that militarism significantly contributes to the U.S.’s decline, specifically what he calls “micro-militarism,” which has plagued previous empires. These foreign military adventures are not full-blown “wars” that cost horrendous amounts of money or result in defeats. He says, as “allies worldwide begin to realign their politics to take cognizance of rising Asian powers, the cost of maintaining 800 or more overseas military bases will simply become unsustainable, finally forcing a staged withdrawal on a still-unwilling Washington.”

In his book, America’s Engineered Decline, William Norman Grigg, editor of the New American, contends that America’s decline has occurred because it is exhibiting the same characteristics of poverty, crime, illiteracy and ill health that are found in third-world countries. Grigg cites a quote by Mahatma Gandhi, who said the roots of conflict and violence within a nation are “wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice and politics without principle.”

Gideon Rachman, writing in the prestigious journal Foreign Policy, comments in the new economic and political order witnessing America’s decline: “Britain, France, Italy, even Germany–are slipping down the economic ranks. China, India, and Brazil are on the rise. They each have their own foreign-policy preferences which collectively constrain American’s ability to shape the world.” He concludes, “America will never again experience the global dominance it enjoyed in the 17 years between the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 and the financial crisis of 2008. Those days are over.”

Economists J. Bradford DeLong and Stephen Cohen of the University of California write in their new book, The End of Influence, “it [America’s influence] is gone and it is not likely to return in the foreseeable future…The American standard of living will decline relative to the rest of the  industrialized and industrializing world…The United States will lose power and influence.”

James Fallows, writing in The Atlantic magazine, says, “our government is old and broken and dysfunctional and may even be beyond repair….it will make a difference if we improvise and strive to make the best of the path through our time –and our children’s, and their grandchildren’s rather than stay on the current path.”

America’s decline as a dominant world power is already underway, driven by profound internal economic and social challenges. Reversing this trajectory will require transformative political, economic, and social reforms—a daunting prospect given the deep ideological divides that fragment the nation. The current moment demands extraordinary vision and unity from political and social leaders, yet such a consensus appears increasingly elusive.

The 21st century has profoundly shaken the stability and global influence of America’s political system, ideology, and values. Two protracted wars, rampant consumerism, and the 2008 financial crisis have left deep scars, not only on the economy but on the country’s global standing and reputation. The era of unchallenged American dominance, characterized by the ideological export of democracy, freedom, and human rights, began to erode after the Iraq War. Military overreach and failed interventions have significantly diminished the appeal of America’s self-defined ideals worldwide.

The sweeping forces of change over the past generation—deindustrialization, stagnant wages, financialization, income inequality, the explosion of information technology, the flood of money into politics, and the rise of the political right—can be traced back to the late 1970s. These forces reshaped the U.S., making it more entrepreneurial but less equitable, more individualistic but less community oriented. The shift to a high-tech, finance-driven economy concentrated wealth on the coasts while leaving the heartland economically hollowed out. The pillars of middle-class democracy—strong public schools, stable jobs, robust journalism, and effective legislatures—have all suffered steady decline.

For more than three decades, this decline has progressed, largely overlooked or dismissed by political leaders and mainstream media, who cling to the narrative of American exceptionalism. History reminds us that great nations and empires inevitably rise and fall. The question now is whether America will follow the same path—and, if so, what can be done to alter its course.

The Path to a Better Future for the United States: Key Recommendations

1. Adopt a Foreign Policy Rooted in Diplomacy and Peace
   Move away from militaristic strategies such as confrontation, intervention, regime change, and violations of international law and treaties. The U.S. no longer needs to act as the world’s policeman. A foreign policy focused on militarism undermines America’s professed role as a global advocate for peace and justice.
2. Reaffirm America’s Role as a Global Force for Good
   Utilize U.S. resources to address pressing global challenges, including climate change, poverty, racial inequality, and the promotion of democracy. Focus on advancing human well-being worldwide through collaborative and humanitarian initiatives.
3. Rethink the U.S. Model of Free-Market Capitalism
   Reassess a system that thrives on extreme competition, corporate welfare, and corruption. Explore ways to build a more equitable economic framework that fosters shared prosperity instead of perpetuating winners-and-losers dynamics.
4. Prioritise Domestic Policies that Enhance Public Well-Being
   Focus on policies that address critical issues such as public health, fair taxation, income inequality, poverty, life expectancy, public education, family support systems, and environmental sustainability. Ensure that government initiatives benefit the entire population, not just a privileged few.
5. Curb the Influence of Wealth on Governance
   Limit the power of the ultra-wealthy in shaping business practices and government policies. Reduce the influence of lobbyists and large corporations to ensure that policymaking serves the broader public interest, not special interests.
6. Strengthen Democratic Institutions and the Rule of Law
   Take decisive steps at local and federal levels to protect democracy from the encroachment of oligarchy and authoritarianism. This includes reducing the influence of wealth and power on the judiciary, reinforcing the rule of law, and ensuring fair and equitable governance.
7. Embrace a Multipolar World Order
   Acknowledge that the U.S. can no longer dominate global affairs alone. Recognize the rise of other influential powers and foster international cooperation and collaboration to effectively address shared global challenges.

By pursuing these steps, the United States can reclaim its position as a leader in advancing global peace, prosperity, and sustainability while fostering a more equitable and inclusive society at home.

Appendices

Copyright

No part of this document may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief cited quotations.

DISCLAIMER

The opinions expressed here are my own, and I do not represent any individuals or organizations. As much as possible, any data described here has been cited and comes from reliable sources.